A Colorado State University team has predicted a strong hurricane season in 2024, with expectations that Connecticut has about a one in three chance of experiencing a named tropical storm off its coast this year. The CSU Tropical Weather and Climate Research team prediction comes part in parcel with an overall prediction of an intense hurricane season for the Atlantic seaboard. The team estimates 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and an overall 65 percent chance of landfall somewhere on the East Coast.
Every year, two centers produce forecasts of the Atlantic hurricane season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and CSU try to estimate whether a hurricane season will be "normal," above or below average. According to NOAA, the official hurricane season for the Atlantic basin is from June 1 to Nov. 30, with peak activity blowing in around Sept. 10, and most of the activity swirling around the area between mid-August and mid-October.
Two factors were at play making the hurricane forecast particularly fraught this upcoming season. The first is that the tropical section of the Atlantic Ocean was experiencing record temperatures. Warm water is the fuel that drives hurricane formation. The second factor is that a La Niña system is developing, which makes it easier for hurricanes to form.
Neither NOAA or CSU attempt to say where or when particular storms will develop, nor can they forecast where they will make landfall this far out.
Connecticut emergency management officials take CSU's predictions seriously. Brenda Bergeron deputy commissioner for the Department of Emergency Services and Public Protection said the state was following CSU's predictions closely to prepare for the upcoming season.
Josh Cingranelli, a regional coordinator with the Connecticut Division of Emergency Management and Homeland Security said that his primary concerns were with heavy rain, storm surges flowing into Long Island Sound and downed trees causing damage. But he said a hurricane making landfall here wasn't out of the question, either. Cingranelli said that since the last landfall, Connecticut had gotten much more densely developed and forested, adding increased potential impact for even a low-level hurricane.
Bergeron said that while state officials planned and prepared with municipal and local officials, Connecticut residents should also take steps to prepare for a potential storm. She pointed to a government app, CT Prepares, which provides emergency alerts, communication and planning tools to residents. She encouraged people, particularly those on the coast, to be prepared with emergency supplies, radios, batteries, flashlights and water, well ahead of a potential storm.
Source: Government Technology
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